*This post provides live updates from ESA’s Space Debris Office on the atmospheric reentry of ESA’s ERS-2 satellite. New updates will be added at the top of this page, so check back daily for the latest.*

For more information on ERS-2 and this reentry, see our ‘ERS-2 reentry – homepage’ and ‘ERS-2 reentry – frequently asked questions’ pages.

Data direct from ESA’s Space Debris Office can be found here (free user account required to view).

— UPDATE 21 February, 20:30 CET —

We have confirmation of the atmospheric reentry of ERS-2 at 17:17 UTC (18:17 CET) +/- 1 minute over the North Pacific Ocean between Alaska and Hawaii.

Click here for the coordinates via Google Maps.

— Update 21 February, 18:35 CET —

We have now reached the end of the final reentry window. We have received no new observations of ERS-2. This may mean that the satellite has already reentered, but we are waiting for information from our partners before we can confirm.

— Update 21 February, 17:45 CET —

This is likely the final update prior to the reentry and break up of ERS-2. Consider following @esaoperations on X (formerly Twitter) for any further info.

ESA’s Space Debris Office currently predicts that the reentry of ESA’s ERS-2 satellite will take place at:

17:05 UTC (18:05 CET) on 21 February 2024

The uncertainty in this prediction is now just +/- 0.55 hours.

This is the latest graph showing how the predicted time of reentry has changed over the last month and a half. As we approach the reentry, the uncertainty in the prediction decreases.

This is the latest graph showing how the altitude of the ERS-2 satellite has changed over the last month, and how it is expected to change in the future.

As ERS-2’s orbit is not a perfect circle, two lines are shown:

The upper line shows the satellite’s ‘apogee’ – the point in its orbit at which it is further from Earth.

The lower line shows the satellite’s ‘perigee’ – the point in its orbit at which it is closest to Earth.

At any particular moment, ERS-2 is at an altitude somewhere between these two lines.

Values before the vertical line show real data obtained via observations of the satellite made using sensors on the ground.

Values after the vertical line show how the satellite’s altitude is expected to evolve in the future, until it fragments into pieces at an altitude of roughly 80 km.

This is the latest available ‘ground track’.

At the current predicted time of reentry, 17:05 UTC , 21 February, ERS-2 will be located approximately 80 km over the red marker, labelled COIW (centre of impact window).

It is here that we currently expect the satellite to begin to break up. The vast majority of the satellite will burn up, and any pieces that survive will be spread out somewhat randomly over a ground track on average hundreds of kilometres long and a few tens of kilometres wide (which is why the associated risks are very, very low).

Reading the ground track:

ERS-2 could still reenter at any time within the current uncertainty window of +/- 0.55 hours. So, the ground track also shows where the satellite will be during the entire window.

As an example: A label of “+2,20:40” would indicate that this is where ERS-2 will be at 20:40 UTC. If reentry occurs at this time, the satellite will have completed between 1.5 and 2.5 more orbits around Earth than expected (+2).

A label of “-3,05:15” would indicate that this is where ERS-2 will be at 05:15 UTC. If reentry occurs at this time, the satellite will have completed between 2.5 and 3.5 fewer orbits around Earth than expected (-3).

Why are the time and location of the reentry still so uncertain?

The regularly updated reentry-window plot at the top of this page features an uncertainty window that is equivalent to 20% of the time remaining until reentry. As the time remaining until reentry decreases, so does the total size of the window.

This uncertainty is largely the result of how difficult it is to forecast the density of the air through which the satellite is passing. Atmospheric density determines the strength of the drag that causes ERS-2’s orbit to decay, but our ability to predict it is limited by how well we can model our very complex atmosphere and by current space weather conditions.

The interplay between unpredictable atmospheric conditions and other factors such as which direction the satellite is facing (which increases or decreases the surface area exposed to the atmosphere) and the fact that we can only update our predictions after it passes over a sensor – like a telescope or radar – makes predicting a natural reentry very difficult.

The ground track passes over a wide range of latitudes due to the nature of ERS-2’s important mission. ERS-2 was designed to shed light on Earth’s changing climate, monitor natural disasters and more. To best achieve its goals, ERS-2 was placed into a ‘Sun-synchronous’ orbit – a type of polar orbit that allowed it to pass over and study a large portion of Earth’s surface.

**Please note that all predictions (particularly the ‘ground track’) are still affected by significant uncertainties.**

— Update 21 February, 17:00 CET —

We have passed the centre of our predicted reentry window. We have nothing new to report as of yet.

— Update 21 February, 12:30 CET —

Using data acquired in the last few hours, ESA’s Space Debris Office predicts that the reentry of ESA’s ERS-2 satellite will take place at:

15:41 UTC (16:41 CET) on 21 February 2024

The uncertainty in this prediction is +/- 1.44 hours.

— Update 21 February, 10:00 CET —

Using data acquired this morning, ESA’s Space Debris Office currently predicts that the reentry of ESA’s ERS-2 satellite will take place at:

15:49 UTC (16:49 CET) on 21 February 2024

The uncertainty in this prediction is now just +/- 1.76 hours.

— Update 20 February, 20:30 CET —

Using data acquired on 20 February 2024, ESA’s Space Debris Office currently predicts that the reentry of ESA’s ERS-2 satellite will take place at:

16:32 UTC (17:32 CET) on 21 February 2024

The uncertainty in this prediction is +/- 4.61 hours.

— Update 20 February, 12:00 CET —

Using data acquired on 20 February 2024, ESA’s Space Debris Office currently predicts that the reentry of ESA’s ERS-2 satellite will take place at:

20:53 UTC (21:53 CET) on 21 February 2024

The uncertainty in this prediction is +/- 7.48 hours.

— Update 20 February, 07:00 CET —

Using data acquired on 19 February 2024, ESA’s Space Debris Office currently predicts that the reentry of ESA’s ERS-2 satellite will take place at:

19:24 UTC (20:24 CET) on 21 February 2024

The uncertainty in this prediction is now just (+/- 9.91 hours).

— Update 19 February, 16:30 CET —

Using data acquired on 19 February 2024, ESA’s Space Debris Office currently predicts that the reentry of ESA’s ERS-2 satellite will take place at:

15:41 UTC (16:41 CET) on 21 February 2024

The uncertainty in this prediction is less half a day (+/- 11.54 hours).

— Update 19 February, 07:00 CET —

Using data acquired on 18 February 2024, ESA’s Space Debris Office currently predicts that the reentry of ESA’s ERS-2 satellite will take place at:

11:14 UTC (12:14 CET) on 21 February 2024

The uncertainty in this prediction is less than one day (+/- 15.06 hours).

— Update 18 February, 11:00 CET —

Using data acquired on 17 February 2024, ESA’s Space Debris Office currently predicts that the reentry of ESA’s ERS-2 satellite will take place at:

15:08 UTC (16:08 CET) on 21 February 2024

The uncertainty in this prediction is less than one day (+/- 18.82 hours).

— Update 16 February, 15:30 CET —

Using data acquired on 15 February 2024, ESA’s Space Debris Office currently predicts that the reentry of ESA’s ERS-2 satellite will take place at:

12:10 UTC (13:10 CET) on 21 February 2024

The uncertainty in this prediction is slightly more than one day (+/- 26.62 hours).

— Update 14 February, 17:30 CET —

Using data acquired on 14 February 2024, ESA’s Space Debris Office currently predicts that the reentry of ESA’s ERS-2 satellite will take place at:

02:34 UTC (03:34 CET) on 21 February 2024

The uncertainty in this prediction is slightly more than one day (+/- 31.23 hours).

— Update 13 February, 17:00 CET —

Using data acquired late on 12 February 2024, ESA’s Space Debris Office currently predicts that the reentry of ESA’s ERS-2 satellite will take place at:

00:24 UTC (01:24 CET) on 21 February 2024

The uncertainty in this prediction is slightly more than 1.5 days (+/- 38.68 hours).

— Update 12 February, 17:00 CET —

Using data acquired on 12 February 2024, ESA’s Space Debris Office currently predicts that the reentry of ESA’s ERS-2 satellite will take place at:

22:26 UTC (23:26 CET) on 19 February 2024

The uncertainty in this prediction is slightly more than 1.5 days (+/- 37.99 hours).

— Update 12 February, 10:00 CET —

Using data acquired on 11 February 2024, ESA’s Space Debris Office currently predicts that the reentry of ESA’s ERS-2 satellite will take place at:

14:01 UTC (15:01 CET) on 20 February 2024

The uncertainty in this prediction is just under two days (+/- 45.91 hours).

— Update 9 February, 16:00 CET —

Using data acquired on 9 February 2024, ESA’s Space Debris Office currently predicts that the reentry of ESA’s ERS-2 satellite will take place at:

01:51 UTC (02:51 CET) on 20 February 2024

The uncertainty in this prediction is just over two days (+/- 53.11 hours).

— Update 8 February, 16:00 CET —

Using data acquired late on 7 February 2024, ESA’s Space Debris Office currently predicts that the reentry of ESA’s ERS-2 satellite will take place at:

05:29 UTC (06:29 CET) on 21 February 2024

The uncertainty in this prediction is just over two and half days (+/- 63.76 hours).

— Update 8 February, 10:00 CET —

Using data acquired yesterday, 7 February 2024, ESA’s Space Debris Office currently predicts that the reentry of ESA’s ERS-2 satellite will take place at:

02:39 UTC (03:39 CET) on 20 February 2024

The uncertainty in this prediction is just over two and half days (+/- 62.91 hours).

— Update 5 February —

As of 12:00 CET, 5 February 2024, reentry is predicted between 16 and 22 February.